Increased penetration of 5G and automotive electronics will bring long-term growth momentum to the PCB industry, but under the influence of the 2020 epidemic, the demand for consumer electronics and automotive PCBs will still decline, and the demand for PCBs in the 5G communications and medical fields is expected to grow significantly.
PCB downstream applications are scattered, and demand in various fields varies. In 2019, except for the demand for infrastructure applications such as networking and storage, which continues to grow, other segments have declined. In the field of consumer electronics, the global output value in 2019 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, the global output value in the field of automotive electronics fell by more than 5%, and the industrial control aerospace and medical fields declined slightly. It is expected that in 2020, in addition to medical electronics, the demand changes in other sub-sectors will continue the trend of the previous year. In 2020, the medical electronics field will be stimulated by the epidemic, and the demand for PCB will increase significantly, but its small proportion will have a limited boost to the overall demand.
It is estimated that the demand for consumer electronics such as mobile phones and PCs, where PCBs will account for nearly 60% of downstream applications in 2020, will shrink by about 10%. The decline in global mobile phone shipments has shrunk in 2019, and PC and tablet shipments have rebounded slightly; during the same period, China’s PCB output value in the above fields accounted for more than 70% of the world’s total. . In the first quarter of 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, global shipments of consumer electronics products such as mobile phones, PCs, and tablets fell sharply; if the global epidemic can be controlled in the second quarter, the decline in global consumer electronics terminal demand is expected to shrink in the third quarter, the traditional in the fourth quarter The peak consumption season ushered in compensatory growth, but it is expected that shipments throughout the year will still decline substantially year-on-year. On the other hand, the use of FPC and high-end HDI by a single 5G mobile phone is higher than that of 4G mobile phones. The increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones can slow the demand shrinkage caused by the decline in overall mobile phone shipments to a certain extent. At the same time, online education, Online office demand for PC has rebounded partially, and PC shipments have narrowed compared with other computer and consumer electronics shipments. In the next 1-2 years, the 5G network infrastructure is still in the construction period, and the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones is not high. In the short term, the demand for FPC and high-end HDI driven by 5G mobile phones is limited, and large-scale volume may be gradually realized in the next 3-5 years.